The Dual Divergence: Growth Successes and Collapses in the Developing World since 1980


  • Working Papers


  • This paper argues that developing countries’ growth successes and collapses tend to cluster in specific time periods—and that only the existence of a global development cycle can explain this. The cycle reflects the external factors that affect all, or large clusters of developing countries, and thus constrain their growth possibilities. Nonetheless, country-specific factors—particularly patterns of specialization—play a significant role in determining growth dynamics. From this perspective, the paper shows a very large difference between the economic growth of developing countries diversifying into higher technology manufacturing exports and those experiencing success in natural resource intensive sectors.

fecha de publicación

  • 2006-06

Líneas de investigación

  • Divergence
  • Economic Growth
  • External Factors
  • Global Development Cycle
  • Patterns of Specialization


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