Does the Barro-Gordon Model Explain the Behavior of US Inflation?: A Reexamination of the Empirical Evidence


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  • This paper tests the predictions of the Barro-Gordon model using US data on inflation and unemployment. To that end, it constructs a general game-theoretical model with asymmetric preferences that nests the Barro-Gordon model and a version of Cukierman’s model as special cases. Likelihood Ratio tests indicate that the restriction imposed by the Barro-Gordon model is rejected by the data but the one imposed by the version of Cukierman’s model is not. Reduced-form estimates are consistent with the view that the Federal Reserve weights more heavily positive than negative unemployment deviations from the expected natural rate.

fecha de publicación

  • 2002

Líneas de investigación

  • Asymmetric Preference
  • Game Theoretical Models of Monetary Policy


  • julio 2002