Monitoring daily unemployment at risk


  • IREA Working Papers


  • Using a high-frequency framework, we show that the Auroba-Diebold-Scotti (ADS) daily business conditions index significantly increases the accuracy of U.S. unemployment nowcasts in real-time. This is of particular relevance in times of recession, such as the Global Financial Crisis and the Covid-19 pandemic, when the unemployment rate is prone to rise steeply. Based on our results, the ADS index presents itself as a better predictor than the financial indicators widely used by the literature and central banks, including both interest and credit spreads and the VXO.

fecha de publicación

  • 2022

Líneas de investigación

  • Mixed-data sampling
  • Nowcast
  • Quantile regressions
  • Unemployment rate


  • 202211