Agricultural Production Amid Conflict: Separating the Effects of Conflict into Shocks and Uncertainty

Serie

  • HiCN Working Papers

Resumen

  • This paper examines the effect of conflict on agricultural production of small farmers. First, an inter-temporal model of agricultural production is developed in which the impact of conflict is transmitted through violent shocks and uncertainty brought about by conflict. We test the model using a unique household survey applied to 4,800 households in four micro-regions of Colombia. Our findings suggest households learn to live amid conflict, albeit at a lower income trajectory. When presence of non-state armed actors prolongs, farmers shift to activities with short-term yields and lower profitability from activities that require high investments. If violence intensifies in regions with presence of non-state armed actors, farmers concentrate on subsistence activities.

fecha de publicación

  • 2017-03

Líneas de investigación

  • Agricultural Production
  • Conflict
  • Developing Economies
  • Small Farmers
  • Uncertainty

Issue

  • 245