The Long-Run Behaviour of the Terms of Trade between Primary Commodities and Manufactures: A Panel Data Approach


  • WIDER Working Paper Series


  • This study examines the Prebisch and Singer hypothesis using a panel of 24 commodity prices from 1900 to 2010. The modelling approach stems from the need to meet two key concerns: (1) the presence of cross-sectional dependence among commodity prices; and (2) the identification of potential structural breaks. To address these concerns, the Hadri and Rao test (2008) is employed. The findings suggest that all commodity prices exhibit a structural break at different locations across series, and that support for the Prebisch and Singer hypothesis is mixed.

fecha de publicación

  • 2011

Líneas de investigación

  • Economic aspects (Raw materials)
  • Panel analysis
  • Prices


  • wp-2011-071