A Risk Based Debt Sustainability Framework: Incorporating Balance Sheets and Uncertainty


  • IMF Working Papers


  • This paper proposes a new framework for the analysis of public sector debt sustainability. The framework uses concepts and methods from modern practice of contingent claims to develop a quantitative risk-based model of sovereign credit risk. The motivation in developing this framework is to provide a clear and workable complement to traditional debt sustainability analysis which-although it has many useful applications-suffers from the inability to measure risk exposures, default probabilities and credit spreads. Importantly, this new framework can be adapted for policy analysis, including debt and reserve management.

fecha de publicación

  • 2008-02

Líneas de investigación

  • Balance Sheets
  • Debt Sustainability
  • Public Debt
  • Public Sector
  • Reserve Management
  • Sovereign Risk


  • ago-40