Regression by clustering using metropolis-hastings


  • Documentos de Trabajo Quantil


  • High quality risk adjustment in health insurance markets weakens insurer incentives to engage in inefficient behavior to attract lower-cost enrollees. We propose a novel methodology based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods to improve risk adjustment by clustering diagnostic codes into risk groups optimal for health expenditure prediction. We test the performance of our methodology against common alternatives using panel data from 500 thousand enrollees of the Colombian Healthcare System. Results show that our methodology outperforms common alternatives and suggest that it has potential to improve access to quality healthcare for the chronically ill

fecha de publicación

  • 2019

Líneas de investigación

  • Markov chain Monte Carlo
  • Risk adjustment
  • clustering
  • health expenditure
  • health insurance


  • 18180