Super Cycles of Commodity Prices Since the Mid-Nineteenth Century

Publicado en

  • World Development


  • Decomposition of real commodiTY prices suggests four super cycles during 1865–2010 ranging between 30 and 40years with amplitudes 20–40% higher or lower than the long-run trend. Non-oil price super-cycles follow world GDP, indicating they are essentially demand-determined; causaliTY runs in the opposite direction for oil prices. The mean of each super-cycle of non-oil commodities is generally lower than for the previous cycle, supporting the Prebisch–Singer hypothesis. Tropical agriculture experienced the strongest and steepest long-term downward trend through the twentieth century, followed by non-tropical agriculture and metals, while real oil prices experienced a long-term upward trend, interrupted temporarily during the twentieth century.

fecha de publicación

  • 2013

Líneas de investigación

  • Band-pass Filters
  • Commodity Prices
  • Prebisch–Ginger Hypothesis
  • Super Cycles

Página inicial

  • 14

Última página

  • 30


  • 44


  • C